The output of graphite petroleum coke is mainly affected by the following factors, which are mainly analyzed from these four aspects.
I Raw material supply
1. Crude oil supply stability: Petroleum coke is the product of the residual oil remaining after crude oil distillation and processed by the coking unit. The crude oil supply directly affects the production base of petroleum coke. If the import volume of crude oil decreases, the output of domestic oil fields fluctuates, or the raw material procurement of refineries is restricted, it will lead to insufficient residual oil raw materials, which will in turn affect the output of GPC.
2. Crude oil type and sulfur content: The properties of different crude oils are significantly different. Indicators such as sulfur content and heavy metal content affect the quality and output rate of petroleum coke. For example, petroleum coke refined from high-sulfur crude oil has a high sulfur content, which may limit its application in some high-end fields (such as lithium battery negative electrodes and high-end graphite electrodes). At the same time, refineries may adjust their production strategies due to environmental protection requirements, affecting output; while petroleum coke refined from low-sulfur crude oil is more popular in the market, and refineries may tend to increase the production proportion of related products.
II Refinery production capacity and unit operation
1. Coking unit scale and operating rate: The design capacity, quantity, and operating rate of the refinery coking unit are the key factors determining the output of GPC. If the refinery adds a new coking unit or increases the operating rate of the existing unit (such as the increase in the national coking operating rate), the output of petroleum coke will increase; on the contrary, the unit maintenance, failure or shutdown due to environmental protection and policy restrictions (such as the increase in the number of existing shutdowns and maintenance of coking units across the country) will lead to a decrease in output.
2. Production process and technical level: Advanced coking process (such as the optimization of delayed coking technology) can improve the raw material conversion rate and petroleum coke output rate. For example, by adjusting the process parameters such as the heating furnace temperature and reaction time, the residual oil can be more efficiently converted into GPC, thereby increasing the output.
III Policy and environmental protection requirements
1. Environmental protection policy restrictions: As environmental protection standards become stricter, refineries need to meet requirements such as waste gas and wastewater emissions. More sulfides may be produced during the production of high-sulfur petroleum coke. If environmental protection control is strengthened, refineries may be forced to reduce the production of high-sulfur coke or invest in desulfurization treatment, which may affect the overall output or adjust the product structure (such as increasing the output of low-sulfur coke and reducing high-sulfur coke).
2. Industrial policy orientation: Policies such as the national "dual carbon" goals and new materials industry planning may promote the transformation of refineries to high-end and green ones. For example, the production of low-sulfur and high-quality petroleum coke is encouraged to meet the needs of emerging fields such as lithium battery negative electrodes and graphite electrodes, thereby guiding production capacity to such products, indirectly affecting the overall output distribution of petroleum coke.
IV Market demand and price signals
1. Fluctuations in demand in downstream industries: The output of GPC is directly affected by the demand of downstream industries (such as carbon for aluminum, negative electrode materials, graphite electrodes, silicon carbide, fuels, etc.). If the new energy vehicle and lithium battery industries develop rapidly, driving a surge in demand for lithium battery negative electrode materials, refineries may increase the production of low-sulfur, high-purity graphite petroleum coke; conversely, if the demand of a certain industry shrinks (such as weak trading in the negative electrode material market), it may cause refineries to adjust production or inventory strategies.
2. Price-driven mechanism: The price trend of petroleum coke affects the production enthusiasm of refineries. When market prices rise (such as the general increase in the auction prices of low-sulfur coke in the main refineries), refineries may increase production by increasing the operating rate and optimizing the production process to obtain higher profits; if prices fall (such as high-sulfur coke drops in price due to shipments not meeting expectations), refineries may reduce production or adjust product structure.
Only by analyzing multiple factors can we grasp the changing trend of graphite petroleum coke production and make corresponding adjustments to adapt to development.
