I. Market Dynamics: Price Fluctuations and Supply-Demand Patterns
1. Prices First Decline, Then Rise, with Significant Structural Divergence
In 2024, China's graphite electrode market exhibited a divergent trend: the prices of regular power electrodes remained stable throughout the year, rebounding to early-year levels by the end of the year. In contrast, high-power and ultra-high-power electrodes experienced a continuous decline in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound in the third quarter, though still below the year's peak. By March 2025, the prices of ultra-high-power graphite electrodes showed notable fluctuations, with the price on March 10 reported at 18,500 yuan/ton, down from 19,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. This was influenced by rising raw material costs, including petroleum coke and needle coke, environmental production restrictions, and the recovery of demand from electric arc furnace steelmaking.
2. Supply-Demand imbalance and Capacity Optimization
Domestic graphite electrode production capacity continued to shrink, with output dropping to 730,000 tons in 2024, a 20% decrease compared to 2019. However, demand for high-end products grew against the trend due to the widespread adoption of electric arc furnace steelmaking. The market exhibited a pattern of "excess low-end products and scarcity of high-end products," prompting enterprises to accelerate their transition to high-value-added products.
II. Escalation of International Trade Frictions
Anti-dumping investigations have intensified. On February 28, Japan issued a preliminary anti-dumping ruling against Chinese graphite electrodes, determining that dumping had harmed its domestic industry, with potential tariff increases to follow. On February 24, the Eurasian Economic Union initiated an anti-dumping investigation at the request of enterprises, targeting graphite electrodes exported from China. As a result, Chinese export enterprises face trade barrier risks and must adjust their market strategies, shifting focus to emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
III. Policy-Driven Green Transformation
Electric arc furnace steelmaking, which emits only one-third of the carbon emissions compared to blast furnace processes, has received significant policy support. It is projected that by 2025, electric arc furnace steel production in China will account for 20% of total output, driving demand for ultra-high-power electrodes to 750,000 tons. However, the high energy consumption of graphite electrode production (4.5 tons of CO₂ emissions per ton) is pushing enterprises to adopt clean energy and low-carbon processes. Leading enterprises, with a market share exceeding 60%, are gaining dominance, while smaller enterprises are gradually exiting the market due to high environmental compliance costs. Driven by policies, outdated production capacity is being phased out at an accelerated pace, and the industry is moving toward intensive development.
