Shipping Volatility & New Export Policies Reshape China's Graphite Petroleum Coke Industry in 2026
Since 2026, China's graphite petroleum coke industry has been affected by overlapping factors including policy adjustments, international shipping fluctuations, and restructured global supply and demand. Following the implementation of the new export tax rebate policy and rising dry bulk freight rates worldwide, coupled with surging shipping surcharges caused by geopolitical tensions, the export costs of core carbon materials such as graphitized petroleum coke and calcined petroleum coke have continued to rise. This trend is forcing the industry to optimize production capacity and adjust export rhythms, marking a new phase for the industry's global development.
In terms of policies, the new export tax rebate policy officially took effect on April 1, 2026, canceling tax rebates for 248 categories of products including graphite carbon materials. It has completely terminated the long-standing export subsidy dividends for the industry, substantially increasing comprehensive export costs. The policy is phasing out the previous extensive export model relying on low prices and large sales volumes, accelerating industrial upgrading and driving enterprises to shift toward high-value-added products such as high-purity graphitized petroleum coke and low-sulfur precision carburizers.
Logistics costs have become a core factor influencing export profits. Affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, restricted strait shipping passage, and rising bunker fuel prices, freight rates on key Far East-to-Middle East, Europe, and South Asia dry bulk routes have increased continuously. The combined cost of ocean freight and insurance has risen by USD 15–25 per ton month-on-month, pushing up CFR prices of petroleum coke by 8%–12%. Major shipping companies have imposed additional war risk surcharges, with vessel schedules extended by 7–12 days on average and reduced port turnover efficiency, further squeezing order delivery capacity. Statistics show that freight rates on the Shanghai-Persian Gulf route have surged by more than 35% year-to-date.
In terms of industrial supply, demand and export data, China's cumulative exports of calcined petroleum coke reached 557,700 tons and uncalcined petroleum coke reached 210,700 tons from January to July 2026, reflecting steady overseas rigid demand. Downstream applications cover overseas electrolytic aluminum, precision casting, new energy anode materials and carbon products industries. Nevertheless, fluctuating shipping costs have heightened overseas buyers' wait-and-see sentiment. Large long-term orders have decreased while small-batch segmented procurement has become mainstream, intensifying market game trading. Meanwhile, maintenance shutdowns and shipment disruptions of Middle East refineries have tightened global petroleum coke supply, offsetting part of the negative impact of rising domestic export costs and maintaining a tight supply-demand balance globally.
Major domestic production areas including Shandong and Hebei maintain stable operation with sufficient supply of graphitized petroleum coke and low-sulfur calcined coke. Faced with dual pressures from policies and logistics, leading enterprises have actively adjusted their strategies. They optimize product structures by focusing on high-purity and low-sulfur high-end products to boost premium profits and offset cost increases. In addition, enterprises flexibly combine short-haul and long-haul shipping channels, sign long-term shipping agreements to hedge freight volatility, and optimize quotation clauses to avoid profit losses caused by floating transportation prices.
Industry analysts believe that short-term shipping market uncertainties will persist, with geopolitical situations, international fuel prices and port efficiency continuing to affect export costs of graphite petroleum coke. In the long run, the cancellation of export tax rebates will accelerate capacity elimination, phase out backward small and medium-sized production capacity, and increase industrial concentration. Driven by the expansion of the global new energy and high-end aluminum industries, overseas demand for high-end graphite petroleum coke remains resilient. China's industry will complete the transformation from cost-oriented exports to quality and brand-oriented exports, steadily enhancing core international competitiveness.
