Based on the market dynamics and industry analysis in March 2025, the price trend of artificial graphite in April 2025 may show the following characteristics:
1. Price support driven by cost
At the beginning of 2025, the price of petroleum coke continued the upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the prices of low-sulfur coke and medium-high-sulfur coke both rose significantly. For example, the price of low-sulfur coke hit a two-year high in January, while the price of local petroleum coke rose by 11% in January. Since the main raw material of graphitized petroleum coke is petroleum coke, its cost transmission effect will push the price of graphitized petroleum coke up. Affected by geopolitics and supply and demand, international crude oil prices may remain high in 2025, further supporting the cost of petroleum coke.
2. Improvement in supply and demand pattern
In 2024, the production capacity of low-end artificial graphite will be cleared at an accelerated pace, and the market supply and demand relationship will improve. Due to the high technical threshold and strong market concentration, high-end artificial graphite may remain stable in April. In 2025, the domestic petroleum coke production is expected to increase only slightly to 33 million tons, and the year-on-year decrease in imports has led to a tight supply of target goods. The capacity increase of graphitized recarburizers is limited, and some companies are facing elimination or delayed production due to environmental protection requirements.
The growth of the new energy vehicle market has driven the demand for negative electrode materials. In 2024, the output of negative electrode materials increased by 14.5%, and it is expected to continue to expand in 2025. The capacity utilization rate of leading enterprises remains above 90%, and the peak demand season in April may further stimulate prices. The proportion of domestic electric furnace steel production capacity has increased to 15%-20%, and the demand for graphite electrodes in crude steel refining has increased, which indirectly affects artificial graphite. Despite weak real estate demand, the recovery of manufacturing and infrastructure supports the steel industry, and the demand for graphitized recarburizers as steelmaking raw materials is stable.
In April 2025, the price of graphitized petroleum coke is expected to remain strong. The cost support of low-sulfur coke and the growth of demand may further increase by 50-200 yuan/ton, while the increase of high-sulfur coke is limited due to the loose supply. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the unexpected drop in crude oil prices, the overcapacity of negative electrode materials leading to lower-than-expected demand, and the tightening of environmental protection and production restriction policies, which may exacerbate supply tensions.
