Based on current market dynamics and industry trends, combined with recent policies, supply and demand patterns, and raw material price trends, China's graphitized petroleum coke recarburizer prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in March 2025. There is further pressure to rise in the short term, but demand-side acceptance may become a constraint. The following is a detailed analysis and forecast:
Price trend forecast
It is expected that in March 2025, the tax-inclusive price of graphitized recarburizers with FC ≥ 98.5% and S ≤ 0.05% in North China will remain at 515-542usd/ton, and the price in East China may be slightly higher than that in North China, reaching 529-558 USD/ton. The price of some low-sulfur, high-graphitization products may exceed 572 USD/ton.
Price increase driving factors
At present, the price of petroleum coke continues to rise, the price of raw materials continues to increase, and the ex-factory price of low-sulfur petroleum coke has approached 858 USD/ton, an increase of 150% from the beginning of 2023. The recent daily increase in the local refining market has even reached 239 USD/ton, directly pushing up the production cost of recarburizers. At the same time, some companies have been eliminated due to substandard environmental protection facilities, coupled with the delay in the commissioning of new projects, the supply-side increment is limited, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain at 85%-90%. The demand for the steel industry is supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investment. March is the traditional peak production season, and steel mills may prepare stocks in advance, which will aggravate the contradiction between market supply and demand in the short term.
Market supply and demand analysis
The supply side is tight, and the overcapacity of negative electrode materials has led to a reduction in graphitized recarburizer by-products, and companies have turned to high-value-added products. The main production areas such as Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are restricted by environmental protection policies, and the release of new production capacity is slow. Supported by multiple demand sides, the recovery of the manufacturing industry and the increase in the start-up rate of infrastructure projects support demand. The demand for lithium battery negative electrode materials continues to be strong.
Industry response strategies and external influences
The leading companies lock in the supply of low-sulfur coke through vertical integration. At the same time, they develop coal-based needle coke alternatives, which are 20% cheaper than petroleum coke. Some companies turned to Russia and Venezuela to import high-sulfur coke, and by improving the desulfurization process, the cost increased by 5%, easing supply pressure.
The dual carbon policy promotes the upgrading of emission reduction technology in the steel industry. Graphitized recarburizers have become the preferred choice due to their low sulfur characteristics. It is expected that the penetration rate in the steelmaking field will increase to 45% by 2030.
In March 2025, the price of graphitized petroleum coke recarburizers will remain high and strong. It is recommended that downstream companies pay attention to the raw material inventory cycle and lock in long-term contract orders in a timely manner; manufacturers need to optimize the cost structure and explore diversified raw material sources to cope with market fluctuations.
