The overall price trend shows a volatile differentiation, and low-sulfur coke may continue to rise. Low-sulfur coke with a sulfur content of about 0.5% may continue to rise in price due to the demand for electrolytic aluminum and negative electrode materials. At the beginning of 2025, the price of low-sulfur coke has risen by 24%-44% year-on-year, and due to the shortage of domestic index goods, there is still room for upward movement of USD 7-29/MT in June. Medium- and high-sulfur coke with a sulfur content of 3%-5% is under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient supply. High-sulfur pellet coke may fall slightly due to policy restrictions and reduced imports. From the perspective of import and export markets, in June 2024, artificial graphite exports increased by 6.63% month-on-month, and imports decreased by 21.13% month-on-month, reflecting the transfer of domestic oversupply pressure to the outside, but weak domestic demand.
Therefore, the core factor affecting the price in June will be the continued aggravation of domestic overcapacity. In 2023, the industry's effective production capacity has reached 2.3 million tons. In 2024, the new production capacity of leading enterprises will be released, intensifying competition. Low-end overcapacity is particularly serious, and small and medium-sized manufacturers are caught in a "price war", and some companies have negative profits. Due to safety inspections and weak demand, the operating rate in Northeast China and other places is low, and inventory digestion is slow.
At the same time, due to the downward trend in costs and pressure on profits, the graphitization processing fee remains weak: the graphitization link, which accounts for 55% of the cost of the negative electrode, has overcapacity and low processing fees, which makes it difficult to provide support for prices. The price reduction of raw materials is transmitted, and the prices of petroleum coke, coated asphalt, etc., have weakened, reducing production costs, but battery manufacturers have strong demands for price reduction, and cost dividends have not been converted into profits.
The increase on the demand side is limited. Although the production of power batteries has rebounded, it is mainly to consume inventory, and new orders are insufficient. Demand expectations have weakened in the energy storage field due to policy adjustments. The prices of high-end products are temporarily stable due to technical barriers, but the competition for homogeneity in the middle and low ends is fierce.
Taking into account supply and demand, cost and policy variables, the artificial graphite market in June is still weak and bottoming out, and price differentiation is intensifying. It is recommended that companies strictly control inventory, optimize product structure, and track changes in demand brought about by energy storage policies and battery technology innovations.
